IN THE NEWS (Steve Palm of Smart Numbers January 21, 2009): There were 3,431 closings for all single family in December. This is a decline of 20% from December 2007 and more than 3,000 less units from our all-time December record of 6,481 in 2005.
For the year, we had 53,786 closings for all single family or a decline 0f 22.1%. However, when compared to the all-time yearly high of 81,071 closings in 2006 the decline is 33.7%. You would have to go back to 2001 to find less annual closings than we had in 2008.
Single family attached closed 437 units in December. This was a decline of 35% from December 2007, but a significant 57% decline from the December record high in 2005. For the year, single family attached closed 7,794 units or a decline of 28.6% from 2007.
Single family detached closed 2,994 units in December. This was decline of 17% from December 2007 and a 47% decline from the December record high in 2005. For the year, single family detached closed 45,992 units or a decline of 20.9% from 2007.
For the first time since records have been kept, the average sale price for a given year is lower than the previous year for all single family homes. The average price for all single family was $222,893 in 2008 or a decline of 12.3% from 2007 and the last time we had an annual price below 2008’s was in 2002.
About the only bright spot for December was that both single family attached and detached had an average sale price that was higher than November. However, the average sale price for single family attached ($169,632) was still 11.5% lower than December 2007 and the average sale price for single family detached ($208,965) was still 15.4% lower than December 2007.
As expected, we broke another record for expired listings for all single family housing, as 2008 experienced 85,149 expired listings versus 2007’s previous record of 76,490 expired listings. This was also almost 70,000 more expired listings than we had 10 years ago in 1998.
There were actually less withdrawn listings for all single family in 2008 than we had in 2007 (32,869 vs. 33,860).
Days-on-market for all single family was up significantly in 2008 versus 2007, but trended downward the last quarter. DOM was 95.1 for all single family in 2008 versus 88.3 in 2007. However, DOM for December 2008 was 90.9 versus 100.5 for December 2007 and the 3rd consecutive monthly period with a year-to-year decline.
There were 55,000 active listings at the end of 2008 for all single family. This inventory level is 9,000 less than December 2007 and only 4,000 higher than December 2006 levels.
We are finally done with 2008, so what will happen for 2009? I believe resales will have year-to-year monthly increases starting at the end of the 2nd quarter with new construction following two quarters later or the end of the year. How much we improve will depend on how effective our government will be to improve liquidity and the ability to lend for our real estate industry.
If our financial markets fail in the ability to fund and fund all-types (conforming, non-conforming, jumbo, etc) of mortgages, it will be a very slow upward turnaround.
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